8 THINGS THAT WILL IMPACT SA’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Every now and then I experience an event, or read an article or a book, that reminds me of an earlier time, roughly around the mid 1990’s, when we birthed our new democracy and became a nation filled with hopes and dreams; living in the euphoria of just having won the Rugby World Cup (1995). As Francois Pienaar stood on the podium, next to a proud Madiba, he raised the prized Webb Ellis Cup to the elation of the whole nation. We felt untouchable.

This was also a time when we had leaders with an unquestionable moral integrity, top educational credentials, and high personal standards at the helm of government, industry, and academia. The event that triggered these thoughts, and to which I am referring to, was an online Think Tank webinar, hosted by the North-West University’s Business School, and the speaker was none other than Trevor Manual, previous Minister of Finance and Minister in the Presidency. Besides having great respect for his sound abilities as finance minister of the country, Mr Manual singlehandedly turned SARS into one of the most competent and efficient government departments at the time. The topic title was South Africa’s Economy: Where do we come from – where do we go?

Listening to Mr Manual and hearing his voice of reason and intellect just took me right back to those earlier days I referred to at the beginning of this piece. Looking at us now, I feel as if we have lost our sense of identity and forgotten who we are as a nation, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Of greater importance to me were the 8 main items, Mr Manual referred to in his webinar, that we should keep a close eye on and that will have a profound impact on the economic growth of our country going forward:

SOUTH AFRICA’S GREY LISTING


The FATF grey list refers to the FATF’s practice of publicly identifying countries with strategic Anti- Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) deficiencies. The greylisting of a country means that its government has adopted an action plan to address to deficiencies identified during its mutual evaluation after an observation period, and to implement such action plan within a defined time period, and with FATF monitoring such implementation.

CREDIT RATING OUTLOOK BY THE AGENCIES


Even though we may not like the agencies, and they render their services at a great cost to us. Poor ratings have a major impact on our ability as a country to attract investments, funding, and other forms of venture capital to stimulate economic growth. It is thus important that there is a constant effort towards improving our financial controls and systems and that we are seen to hold all levels of business accountable at internationally accepted accounting and financial practices and standards.

GENERAL PERFORMANCE OF THE STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES


The success or failure of State-Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) is a direct reflection and testimony of government’s inability to effectively manage commercial enterprises. It is essential that government cleans up its act in the way it manages these commercial enterprises and to ensure they are functional and profitable. SOE’s are critical creators of employment and the seedbeds for further social and economic development of the country and its citizens.

CORRUPTION AND PROSECUTION OF PERPETRATORS


We simply have to show that we take serious steps towards eradicating corruption, and that we take the necessary actions to prosecute criminal activities. These steps also include implementing control measures to ensure accountability at all levels of government. Included in these actions should also be the protection of whistleblowers.

PROTESTS AND CIVIL UNREST


Many times, valid protests turn into civil unrest that get out of hand and lead to massive damage to infrastructure, fuelling widespread fears and concerns, as was the case during the KZN uprisings during 2022. These events have a negative impact on potential investments and cause tremendous harm to our international image and brand as a stable country, not to mention the exorbitant capital layout to replace stolen goods and repair damaged property and infrastructure. These are damages we simply can’t afford.

THE RULING PARTY’S ELECTORAL SUPPORT


It is the first time since 1994 that the ruling party’s electoral support seems to be on shaky ground. This will require strong leadership from the ruling party to address and re-align the party to its electoral constituencies. It will also influence the development and roll-out of economic and social policies.

THE IMPACT OF COALITION POLITICS


Since the ruling party’s voter support base appears to be under severe threat, it opens up the door to coalitions and coalition party politics which is a fairly new form of political structure and involve new collaborative efforts. This will pose new challenges to all involved in our democracy.

INTELLIGENT ANALYIS OF POLICY REFORMS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH


The current economic state of affairs is basically the sum total of the decisions, policies and approaches taken thus far by the SA government. The future of economic progress and development for the country, lie squarely on our ability to assess and evaluate the very policies that got us here. Without serious analysis in conjunction with asking tough questions from our government leadership, securing the country’s financial future will remain a pipedream at best.

CONCLUSION


I am no politician, and I am certainly not trying my hand at political analysis, but the state of the economy and how we deal with the challenges we face, as business leaders, business owners and, entrepreneurs in general, will play a vital role in the sustainability and future growth of our economy and the country’s citizenry.

Without sufficient economic growth, we simply cannot finance the projects necessary to address the development and expansion of previously disadvantaged communities. Employment remains, at the very least, the very first step to ensure that people can provide in their basic human needs such as food and shelter. These are vital for the maintenance of any form of personal dignity and without it, we will be creating a spark at the proverbial barrel of dynamite, and we will be one step closer to a major societal catastrophe.

This entire matter, in my opinion, makes it an important enough issue to call every business leader, owner, shareholder, entrepreneur, government official and citizen to take action, to step up to the plate and to get involved. Get involved in local council meetings, review new policies affecting you in your everyday life. Support community projects and identify causes that resonate with the core values of your business, your department, or your world view.

The time for complaining and listing the failures of the ruling party is over – anyone can do that. We need to accept that no one is coming to our rescue. The protection of our constitutional rights, our future, our businesses, our towns, and our economy, will simply have to come from us.